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Our 2016 Prediction: Market Predictions Will Err

The beginning of a new year wouldn’t be complete without a chorus of financial experts making predictions about the stock market.

But unless 2016 is very different from years past, the experts will be terribly wrong. The record shows that even the brightest minds on Wall Street get their predictions wrong most of the time.

Consider the research of Motley Fool columnist Morgan Housel. Housel studied forecasts that 22 of Wall Street’s top strategists made for the Standard & Poor’s 500 index from 2000 to 2014. He found that their predictions differed from the S&P’s actual performance by an average of about 15 percentage points annually.

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